Tuesday 26 April 2011

Voting Reform 2: Two-Party Systems #referendum

The referendum is not just a question of to 'AV' or 'AV' not. It's also a vote of on the present system, First Past The Post.

One of the main problems with FPTP is the tendency towards a two-party system. Where only two parties have any real chance of power (as is usually the case in the UK), there are disenchanted voters and low turnouts.

Will AV break the back of the two-party system? In theory, yes. All those tactical voters, who would otherwise vote for a candidate who will come third, will be able to vote just how they want. They'll back up their vote with a second preferences, knowing that they will be counted in later rounds if it turns out that their candidate was a non-starter.

In practice, it's difficult to say what will happen, there are so many variables in play. Voters have never been asked for their second preferences, so all projections are sketchy.

One projection guessed that the result of all the postwar elections would have been pretty much the same. But you can't take each election in isolation and then claim that it wouldn't make a difference in the historical trends. For example, the Lib Dems would have more votes, making them a more viable party. They could have then, over the years, built up a stronger base of MPs, giving them the experience and pool of people necessary to make a more effective coalition partner.

The fact is, AV changes the rules of the game, and makes it easier for third parties to win, simply because, it allows us to cast our votes more honestly.

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